2015年12月1日 星期二

咖啡會在2080年時消耗殆盡嗎?

Experts weigh in on coffee's sustainability and the imminent global crisis.

專家們致力於找出咖啡的永續性及其帶來迫在眉梢的全球危機。


Can coffee be produced sustainably? That’s a big question, and it doesn’t look like anybody knows the longterm answer.  Industry experts and independent researchers both respond with "Yes, but…" But what? Will coffee be around in 50 years? What must happen to ensure a decent cup in the next century?

咖啡可以無止盡的生產嗎?這是一個大問題,對此似乎也沒有人有解答,產業的專家及研究者會針對此問題回應:「咖啡可以無止盡生產,但是…」,但是什麼?50年內咖啡還在嗎?下一個世紀要怎麼確定什麼是美味的咖啡?



Coffee requires a titanic amount of resources to travel from farm to cup, and at least partially thanks to the beverage’s massive carbon footprint, climate change could make it impossible to drink in another few decades. As a global commodity, coffee is one of the most traded products in the world, and one of the biggest exports from many developing countries—all of which are subequatorial. The shortest trip that a coffee bean travels from farm to cup in the US is about 1,000 miles— from Chiapas, Mexico into Texas. But, more likely the beans trek significantly farther, and transportation is only one part of the complicated, expensive journey.

咖啡從種植到飲用的過程需要耗費大量的資源,至少大部分是因為飲料大量的碳足跡造成的氣候變遷,讓我們無法在數十年後還可以飲用咖啡。作為全球日常品,咖啡是全球交易量最大、也是許多亞熱帶發展中國家最主要出口的產品。在美國從咖啡園到咖啡店最短的過程是1,000英哩(從墨西哥契亞帕斯省到美國德州)。但更多的豆子需要更久更長的過程,而運輸僅是其中一部份複雜又昂貴的過程。


Sailing Dog Sustainable Distribution網站關於咖啡碳足跡及水足跡的資訊圖


According to this 2012 study from the Journal of Agricultural Science and Technology, "The total carbon footprint calculated for Costa Rican coffee across its full supply chain is 4.98 kg of CO2e per kilogram of green coffee." Estimates for the water footprint from one cup of coffee range from about 140 to 200 liters. But that’s just part of the story. For coffee to be sustainable, the process doesn’t just have to get greener—it’s probably too late for that. Instead, the industry must adjust to climate change.

根據2012年農業科技期刊的研究,哥斯大黎加每公斤的咖啡在整個供應鏈中碳排放量為4.98公斤二氧化碳當量,預估每杯咖啡的水足跡約140~200公升。但這只是冰山一角,要讓咖啡可以永續發展,從流程下手似乎已經太遲了,甚至這個產業必須適應氣候變遷帶來的影響。


Economic sustainability, meaning that it’s  viable to make money off growing and selling coffee, also must be addressed.  Because no farmer should grow coffee at a loss. That’s exactly what happened when the commodity price fell below the cost of production during the "Coffee Crisis" of 2001. Many forward thinking companies—from giants like Starbucks, Illy, and Peet’s to smaller specialty brands like Intelligentsia, Blue Bottle, and Stumptown—decided it would be smarter to pay more for coffee through direct trade relationships, grower cooperatives, and infrastructure at origin, to guarantee a high-quality, continuing supply of coffee.

永續經濟意味必須在賺錢為前提下種植、銷售和配送咖啡,不應該有咖啡農在當中有虧損。2001年「咖啡危機」時,咖啡大宗商品的價格降到成本以下時,許多有前瞻性的咖啡公司,從龍頭企業像是星巴克、意利咖啡、畢特咖啡,到比較小的精品品牌像是知識分子咖啡、藍瓶咖啡、樹墩城咖啡,決定透過直接貿易、農民合作社、基礎建設,來保障高品質和穩定供貨源的咖啡。


But ethical trade practices mean nothing if climate change will make coffee effectively extinct by 2080 as 
this study by scientists from the UK’s Royal Botanic Gardens, and the Environment and Coffee Forest Forum suggests:

但這些合作貿易如果因為氣候變遷的因素,而在2080年可能讓咖啡絕種,這一切都將付諸流水。做此份研究的「英國皇家植物園」以及「環境與咖啡森林論壇」的科學家建議:


In an area analysis the most favourable outcome is a 38% reduction in suitable bioclimatic space, and the least favourable a c. 90% reduction, by 2080. Based on known occurrences and ecological tolerances of Arabica, bioclimatic unsuitability would place populations in peril, leading to severe stress and a high risk of extinction. This study establishes a fundamental baseline for assessing the consequences of climate change on wild populations of Arabica coffee.

2080年時,最樂觀的情形,是適合咖啡生長的氣候環境減少了38%,而最糟可能減少90%。根據影響阿拉比卡生長的已知因素,生物氣候的影響最鉅,會導致嚴重的損失以及絕種的高風險,這個研究建基於評估氣候對大部分阿拉比卡的影響。


A combination of changing climate, along with the increased susceptibility of coffee plants to coffee rust and other diseases or pests, ensures that big changes are imperative.

去掉咖啡易受葉鏽病或其他病蟲害影響的特性,並結合氣候變遷時,需要確保這些劇變是必要的。





The Farm
農田

Dr. Stephen Gliessman specializes in Agroecology (the study of sustainable agriculture) at the University of California Santa Cruz's Department of Environmental Studies and in his opinion much of the coffee traded today isn’t sustainable. When asked if coffee could be sustainable produced, he answered, "Yes, but only if coffee systems are redesigned to include multi-purpose plant species."

在美國加州大學聖克魯斯分校環境研究所,專攻永續農業研究的「生態農業」的Stephen Gliessman博士提到,現今大多數的咖啡貿易都不符合永續發展,而Gliessman博士認為咖啡可以永續生產而不會消耗殆盡,但前提是咖啡系統被重新設計以涵蓋多用途植物物種。


His redesigned coffee agriculture model begins, "first and foremost with shade trees that moderate the climate inside the coffee plantation, but secondarily produce other products that can be used or sold by the farmers. This would include food and fruit trees such as bananas, avocados, mangos, zapote, annona, nut trees, and many others."
Gliessman博士重新設計了咖啡農業模型,首先要有遮蔭樹以調節咖啡種植所需的氣候條件,但其次需生產可以被農民使用或販售的產品,這包含了食物、果樹(如香蕉、鱷梨、芒果、人心果、番荔枝、榛果)等。


These other species provide a myriad of benefits. Gliessman points out that they could also be used for firewood, construction material, or "even medicinal use."
這些其他的作物種類帶了許多利潤,Gliessman博士指出這些作物還可以用作柴火、建材甚至醫藥用途。



Photos: Facebook/Blue Bottle



Those secondary products of this agriculture model aren’t the point: "Most importantly, this ‘coffee forest’ also produces vast amounts of biomass that enriches the soil below the shade cover, reducing the need for outside inputs of fertilizer while storing carbon in the living biomass as well as in the soil. Such complete cover also captures and holds water, avoids erosion, and sequesters carbon." Erosion, water runoff, and inadequate soil are all issues that industrial farming exacerbates.
這些農業模型中的次產品不是重點,「最重要的是這些咖啡林可產出大量生物質,這些生物質在遮蔭樹之下可以優化土壤,降低土壤在生物質碳儲存所需使用的肥料,這種完整的覆蓋也抓住並保留水分,避免土壤被侵蝕並隔絕碳。」侵蝕、水流量和土壤不足,是造成所有農產品加工惡化的問題。


"Finally, many of the species might even be local native species of trees, birds, orchids, etc. that would otherwise be endangered due to deforestation of the natural forests," Gliessman adds. "In other words, ‘coffee forests’ produce much more than coffee, and farmers should be rewarded for this service to the environment and to humanity."
最後Gliessman博士補充,許多的種類必須有當地原生種的樹、鳥與蘭花等,否則會因為天然林的砍伐而造成瀕危,換句話說「咖啡林」的產值比咖啡多,而咖啡農對環境及人類的貢獻需要被表揚。


Gliessman argues that these resilient coffee forests will be able to survive climate change. "It is the low elevation robusta variety of coffee and the coffee that is grown in large monoculture, full sun plantations (the bulk of the coffee traded on the open commodity market) that will not be resilient." Single species plantations are more susceptible to disease and pests linked to climate change from lack of genetic diversity, and rising temperatures will make it impossible to grow even low-quality robusta at lower elevations.
Gliessman博士認為這些咖啡林必須可以在氣候變遷下生存,「這些低海拔的羅巴斯塔咖啡是在缺乏彈性的單一栽培、全日曬的環境下種植(在公開的大宗咖啡貿易市場)」。單一栽培的品種更容易受到病蟲害、缺乏遺傳多樣性和氣候變遷影響,而氣溫的上升甚至無法在低拔的地方種植低品質的羅巴斯塔。



"Some people say coffee will have to move up in elevation to cooler areas, but those areas are where some of the only remaining forest exists. In my opinion, with climate change, there will be added incentive for farmers to diversify their coffee plantings ... so that coffee once again functions as the shade loving, interior forest shrub species it originated as in the mountains of Ethiopia."
「有些人會說咖啡必須要移植到較冷區域的海拔,但是這些區域是一些僅存森林的區域。以我的觀點,從氣候變遷來看會增加吸引農民將咖啡種植多樣化…所以咖啡再次在遮蔭樹下種植,起源於衣索比亞的山區深處的森林灌木樹種。


In 2012 Gliessman helped launch a non-profit called the 
Community Agroecology Network that promotes this model and helps farmers adopt it. For coffee companies which pay their farmers more than Fair Trade prices, grow beans in environmentally sustainably ways, and offer overall transparency in the process and more, the organization offers an AgroEco® certification. Sort like a Fair Trade stamp but better.
2012年Gliessman博士幫助一個非營利組織「農業生態社區網絡」,這個組織推廣這個農業模型,並幫助農民適應這種模式,給農民給得比公平交易價格更高的咖啡公司,以環境永續的方式種植咖啡豆,並在這個過程中提供全面的透明化,該組織提供了AgroEco®的認證。


But, other companies are pursuing coffee farm diversity in slightly different ways. The 
World Coffee Research institute, a group that’s funded by titans of the coffee industry—Keurig, Mars, J.M. Smucker but also Counter Culture and Intelligentsia—is researching coffee varietals that could better survive in the bold, new, warmer world of the future. Much of this work is aimed at creating varieties of coffee plant that produce more, thrive at lower elevations, and are resistant to diseases like coffee rust.
但其他公司追求咖啡園多樣性的方式略有不同,由咖啡產業龍頭-KeurigMarsJ.M.斯馬克反文化咖啡知識分子咖啡所資助的世界咖啡研究所,正在研究未來可以在險峻、新的更溫暖的環境生存的咖啡品種,大部分這些研究都針對創造出產量更高、栽培海拔更低、抗病力(如葉鏽病)更高的品種。


In 2013, Tom Schilling, executive director of the World Coffee Research, 
told US News that by 2080 "It's possible that instead of sourcing coffee from Guatemala, you'll be doing it from Texas or the south of France."
2013年世界咖啡研究所的執行董事Tom Schilling告訴美國新聞:2080年「你有可能會從德州或是南法得到咖啡,而不是從瓜地馬拉。」


Haley Drage, a spokesperson for Starbucks, says that the company has been working to address climate change for at least a decade. To facilitate research and development of agricultural techniques and new varietals of coffee, Starbucks owns a farm in Costa Rica that acts as the company's Global Agronomy Center. The aim is to grow coffee plants that are both better suited to surviving warmer weather and likewise resistant to climate change related diseases like coffee rust.
星巴克的發言人Haley Drage說:星巴克已經研究應對氣候變化的方法至少有十年了,為了促進研究以及發展農業技術與咖啡新品種,星巴克在哥斯大黎加有一座農場專門做為星巴克的全球農業中心,這個中心的目的是種植出可以同時良好適應暖化的氣候,以及抗病力高、能抵擋氣候變化造成的疾病(如葉鏽病)的咖啡。


But, Starbucks' Global Agronomy Center isn’t just some corporate genetic R&D facility. Per Drage, "The research discoveries and best practices from this work will be available to anyone in an effort to inform growing principles for farmers around the world." This might seem like a generous and borderline unprofitable act for a big corporation, but that indicates just how dire the situation really is.
但星巴克的全球農業中心不是只像一些遺傳研發中心而已,Drage說:「這些研究發現和最佳做法將提供給世界各地在努力想知道種植技術的農民。」這對大公司來說似乎是一個慷慨和無利可圖的行為,但也表示這個情況有多可怕。



Inside Starbucks' Reserve Roastery in Seattle. Photos: Facebook/Starbucks




At the Cup
在咖啡杯中

Agriculture is just one part of the coffee sustainability problem. Much of coffee’s carbon footprint comes not from farming and transportation but from the other end of the chain—the roasting, brewing, and drinking. In fact, consumption accounts for around 45 percent of the total carbon footprint of a cup of coffee according to the study "Carbon Footprint across the Coffee Supply Chain: The Case of Costa Rican Coffee" from the Journal of Agricultural Science and Technology.
農業種植只是咖啡永續問題中的一部份,大多數咖啡的碳足跡並不是在於種植與運輸,而是在供應鏈的末端:烘焙、沖煮以及飲用。事實上,根據農業科技雜誌的研究:「碳足跡跨越咖啡供應鏈:以哥斯大黎加咖啡為例」來看,消費的行為佔一杯咖啡總碳足跡的45%左右。


In effort to reduce their carbon footprint, companies like Peet’s and Starbucks have LEED-certified facilities. In fact, Starbucks has more LEED certified retail stores than any other company in the world— over 500. A representative for Peet's explains that the chain recycles all pallets, burlap bags, and plastic packaging. Meanwhile, Starbucks claims to have reduced energy use in stores by 25 percent since 2013. And considering the behemouth's size, that’s a massive energy reduction. Further, Starbucks is also committing to purchasing only renewable energy.
為了有效降低碳足跡,一些公司像是畢茲咖啡和星巴克使用LEED認證的設施(註:LEED中文名能源與環境先鋒設計,為一國際性綠色評估技術,提供建物所有者明確的綠建築開發、設計、建造、營運維護的執行架構,鼓勵永續性建築的發展與管理實行。)事實上,星巴克店面擁有超過500項的LEED認證數量比世界上任何公司都多。畢茲咖啡的代表解釋說,供應鏈要回收所有托盤、麻布袋及塑膠包裝,然而,星巴克聲稱他們從2013年在門市使用的能源已經減少25%,這是像河馬張嘴時一樣巨大的節能減排。此外,星巴克還承諾只購買可再生能源。




Photo: Facebook/Blue Bottle



As for smaller coffee roasters like Intelligenstia, Stephen Morrissey, Director of Communications and 2008 World Barista Champion, says that "As it relates to retail—we are currently building a program in Chicago that will recycle all of our milk containers. We are exploring the idea of partnering with a city farm to collect coffee grounds and we'll use a bike cart to travel around and collect it, before dropping it off."
比較小規模廠的咖啡烘豆師,像是2008年WBC冠軍、知識份子咖啡的公關經理Stephen Morrissey說:「由於這涉及到零售,我們正在芝加哥建設一個計劃來回收所有的牛奶容器,我們正在探究跟一個城市裡的農場合作,在咖啡渣被丟棄前收集起來,然後用自行車四處運送並收集」。


It seems natural that there would be small cafes in the world dedicated to achieving zero carbon footprint, but they seem to be few and far between. 
The Perennial is a forthcoming carbon neutral restaurant, café, and bar in San Francisco conceived by Anthony Myint and Karen Leibowitz of Mission Chinese. The eatery will be an early adopter of a new certification called Zero Food Print launched by a non-profit of the same name, which founder Chris Ying (Lucky Peach) debuted at the 2014 MAD conference in Copenhagen. The Perennial has selected Paramo Coffee as the house brew, but owner Gabriel Boscana says the restaurant is still too far out from debuting to explain how his coffee with be carbon neutral.
對小咖啡館而言實現零碳排放很自然,但對大公司來說似乎並不多見,由Anthony Myint和Karen Leibowitz構思的Perennial,是即將在舊金山開幕的碳平衡(的餐廳咖啡廳和酒吧,這個餐館會是一個非營利全新認證Zero Food Print的先驅者,同樣由飲食生活誌Lucky Peach的創辦人應德剛在2014年哥本哈根MAD會議首次亮相,Perennial選擇了Paramo咖啡作為沖煮據點,但Paramo的主人加百列波斯卡納聲稱這個餐廳,距離到實現碳平衡的目標還很遙遠。


But accord to Myint, to reach zero carbon footprint, "The Perennial will ... incorporate best practices and to a certain degree [go] a little outside the box to try and revise what best practices can mean. And ... will purchase food related carbon offsets to address the inevitable footprint thereafter." The Perennial raised money 
via Kickstarter last year for an aquaponic greenhouse in Oakland that will double as Paramo's roasting facility.
但根據Myint對零碳足跡的敘述:「Perennial將會以此列為最佳做法,並在一定程度上(實行)跳脫框架,嘗試和修改出最好的方法,而且將購買的食物形成相關的碳抵消後,可以解決無法避免的碳足跡。」Perennial前一年為Kickstarter一個奧克蘭的溫室籌集資金,而這個溫室將兼作Paramo的烘焙廠


There’s no way around the fact that coffee is a resource-intensive product. Experts agree that if the world is going to continue drinking coffee 20 or 50 years from now, production methods will have to change. Whether we like it or not.
咖啡不是一個資源密集充足的產品,專家也同意如果從現在開始喝咖啡持續20年或50年,那麼不管我們喜不喜歡,生產的方法將必須改變。
 


Original Source:
http://www.eater.com/drinks/2015/3/24/8280405/will-the-world-run-out-of-coffee-by-2080

沒有留言:

張貼留言